Betting Long Shots in Big Races Can Be Profitable.

I was sitting with someone who doesn't know much about horse racing, just before the start of the Belmont. I was explaining the odds to her and why betting on a horse at 1-4 odds was such a ludicrous thing to do. She instantly got it and understood what a lousy bet it was.

"It looks to me like you could bet just about all the other horses in the race and still make a profit if any one of them wins," she said. "All that has to happen is that the favorite loses and you win. There are 8 other horses so you have 8 chances to win if you bet against the favorite with all the other horses."

She understood that, without knowing anything about horse racing betting or horse racing handicapping. So why were so many people so happy to take such terrible odds on Big Brown?

Part of it was the media. They hyped the horse until people thought it could fly. Common Sense was scratched early and Reality trailed the field early but made a big finish. About the time Da'Tara crossed the finish line and Big Brown was nowhere in sight a lot of people found out what some of us have known for a long time.

It is easier to make money on longshots than it is to make money on favorites. I have been saying this for a long time. Some people have listened and learned, but most can't hear me because I don't work for a television station or get paid to hype a horse or sport.

In fact, if I had been one of the commentators before the race I wouldn't have been much fun to listen to because I would have been pointing out the same things the lady said. Give her credit, she isn't a horse racing handicapper and knows nothing about betting. The only thing she has going for her is that she understands math, has commonsense and has lived long enough to know that nothing is certain in life.

Not all longshots are good bets, obviously, but when is a horse at 1-4 a good bet? I'll take long odds on an outsider anytime, especially one that has a great trainer who is known for winning the Belmont with longshots.

Everyday, all over the world, longshots win races, and yet more attention is focused on the favorites. Why? Because it takes imagination and courage to think outside the box. But like so many other situations in life, in horse racing thinking outside the box can really pay off, especially if you take the time to learn how to spot a live longshot.