How to Pick a Winner at the Races.

When looking for a winner, what do I need to look for?

It is a question I hear more than any other. Just briefly, here are your starting points:

1. CLASS – What is the horse's "peak performance" or best ever run? What was the class of the race? That is your starting point. What Distance / Track / Weight was it over and does the horse have scope to "step" or improve? Is he lightly raced, is he green (immature / raw) and is he improving as distances increase?

Rule No.1 is: The horse has to have the ability to win the race you are assessing!

2. FITNESS – Does he have the fitness to win? Is he first-up or second-up, is he having his tenth run this campaign and starting show signs of tapering off (over-racing / fading late, etc.)? Horses will only win if they are fit and in the right mind-set… Just like human athletes.

3. HISTORY – What is the horse's history… Is his best run 3rd-up from a break? Is he best with his runs spaced? Which are his favourite racetracks? What is his pet distance? What is his favoured track surface, wet/dry? Add onto this the history of the race itself. Has it been won in the past by last start winners, do fresh horses win this race, is it won generally by those stepping from a certain lead-in race. The history of the race is a very good guide as it has every year been run by similar class horses!

4. TRACK BIAS – A relatively new phenomenon (since moveable rails) this has become as important as ANY factor in determining your winner. You could have the best horse in the race by 3 Lengths (half a second) yet he will be 50/1 on a track favoring leaders if he gets back, and vice versa.

Recognizing and being able to read a track pattern will find you not only value winners, but give you the ability to recognize a false favourite. We just love taking on favourites whom we know cannot win!

There are plenty of other factors of course like weights (relative weights) and times as well as jockeys, trainers, etc.

Start with your starting point though – Is my horse good enough? We can over-complicate things in every sport at times can't we… I know I am guilty of that too often, but in knowing that, I am always learning also.

Good Luck, and for more information on Australian horse racing, visit us at OzRacingForm.com.au

Give yourself the best chance of winning by having the knowledge you need, to make the best betting decisions you can, at your disposal. OzRacingForm.com.au we have done the work, so you can reap the rewards!!!